Roku (ROKU) shares are down 85%. And while some investors celebrate the bursting of what they believe was an obvious pandemic bubble stock, things could still get worse. For example, the Fed’s hawkishness is driving us into recession, Roku’s earnings are again negative and the shares remain highly shorted right along with many other now infamous “high-growth” stocks. In this report, we review Roku’s business, its growth opportunities, its valuation, the multitude of headwinds that many investors are now increasingly aware of (such as supply chain issues, competitive threats, slowing growth), and then conclude with our opinion on investing.
Looming Recession?
STAG's 4.4% Yield: 3 Big Risks Drive Price Lower
If you are an income-focused investor, you probably like investing in REITs for their often big, steady, dividend payments. However, you may have noticed that following years of strong outperformance, the industrial REIT sector (including monthly-dividend payor, STAG Industrial (STAG)) has recently sold off hard. This report reviews STAG’s business, including information on the 3 big risk factors contributing to its relatively lower valuation multiple—as compared to industry peers (especially following the recent big Industrial REIT sector sell off), and then concludes with our opinion on investing.
China "Tech Crackdown" Reversing
40 Big-Dividend BDC's: Price-to-Book Values
CrowdStrike: This “Ain’t” Their First Rodeo
CrowdStrike founder and CEO, George Kurtz, has founded and led multiple successful cybersecurity businesses, and he knows the drill. Specifically, CrowdStrike is a high-margin Software-as-a-Service company with highly attractive recurring revenues that continue to grow rapidly in a large (and expanding) total addressable market (cybersecurity). What’s more, despite the continuing rapid growth, the valuation has come down, thereby making the shares even more compelling to some investors. In this report we share our opinion on whether CrowdStrike is worth considering for investment at these levels (valuation), or if it’s just another overhyped growth stock that is being valued too much on a euphoric narrative and not enough on its underlying fundamentals.
High Growth Stocks - with Room to Run
These are potentially “rocket fuel” stocks in the coming months, IF inflation has peaked and the Fed becomes less hawkish. It also doesn’t hurt that China has decided to lighten up on its crack down on tech. The “% of 52-Week Price Range” shows how much more upside these stocks could have relatively to where they sit between their 52-week highs and lows.
Owl Rock’s 9.1% Yield: Credit Spread Risks, Rewards
Business Development Companies, or BDCs, make the loans that big banks generally will not (or cannot, due to regulatory rules). However, like big banks, BDC bottom lines usually come down to simply net interest margins (i.e. the margin between the rate they borrow at and the rate they lend at), assuming they can survive any macroeconomic turmoil, considering they have much higher sensitivity than do the big banks. Interest rates are trending sharply higher (as the Fed fights inflation), and this can be very good (or very bad) for big-dividend BDCs (like Owl Rock). In this report, we share our opinion on whether Owl Rock’s big 9.1% dividend yield is attractive and worth considering, or whether the risks are simply too great and if investors should avoid the shares.
The Tech Bubble Took Over 2.5 Years to Fully Burst
The Tech Bubble (QQQ) peaked on 3/10/2000 and it took more than 2.5 years for it to fully burst. We are in a different environment today (i.e. low rates rising, massive revenue also rising for top growth stocks), but here is sector performance when the bubble burst (the first year and peak to bottom). Cathie Wood’s ARKK ETF peaked in June 2021 and the Nasdaq (QQQ) peaked in late 2021.
SaaS - High Growth - Sorted by Profitability
Growth Stocks (1-Day vs YTD)
Disruptive Finance Stocks (sorted by Growth)
This Steady Growth Juggernaut is a Gift from the Market
There is a lot to like about the highly-profitable business we review in this report, including its high margins, powerful revenue growth, large total addressable market opportunity, impressive history of dividend growth (10+ years) and its compelling valuation. The company helps consumers and small businesses make short work of their financial responsibilities and challenges. And the shares have absurdly lost nearly 50% of their value since November as they’ve gotten caught up in the recent market-wide high-growth selloff. Yet, yesterday’s earnings announcement makes clear this business is still quite healthy (they again exceeded expectations) and on track to do even better (perhaps dramatically so) in the years ahead.
Attractive 7.1% Yield BDC: Monthly Dividend, Compelling Valuation
The well-managed, blue-chip, Business Development Company (“BDC”) we review in this report currently trades at a compelling price, it offers a healthy dividend, and it sits at an attractive spot in the current business cycle. But is it worth investing? This report reviews all the details and then concludes with our opinion on investing.
CEF Rover: Bond CEFs Are Ugly--Could Get Uglier
This quick note shares data on over 100 big-yield (7% to 14%+) bond Closed-End Funds (“CEFs”), including discounts/premiums, recent returns, amount of leverage, and more. Returns have been ugly this year (as interest rates have risen), and they could get uglier considering the Fed is set to keep raising, losses will be magnified by the use of leverage, and forced “fire sales” could make matters worse as the funds mathematically bump up against regulatory leverage limits. Caveat Emptor.
Disciplined Growth Portfolio: 6 New Buys!
I don’t trade often (because I believe in long-term investing), but recent market dislocation has created some very attractive buying opportunities. Year-to-date, growth stocks have been hammered, and as counterintuitive as that may seem—that can often be the best time to buy. In this report, we review the new buys, the new “buy under” prices, and the aggregate portfolio details. has all the details.
Albemarle to Benefit from Inflation, EV Lithium Demand
The basic materials stock we review in this report has increased its dividend for 28-years in a row. It also has newfound growth opportunities related to dramatically increasing lithium demand and pricing (courtesy of exploding demand for lithium-based batteries in electric vehicles, for example). Not to mention, the basic materials sector can continue to be a highly attractive inflation hedge. In this report, we review the details and then conclude with our opinion on investing.
Micron: 25 Growth Stocks To Rip Higher
To the satisfaction of many prognosticators, hoards of “pandemic darling” stocks have now fallen more than 30%, 50% and even 70%. However, it’s worth noting that some of them actually have impressive businesses and now trade at dramatically more compelling valuation multiples—even after taking into consideration the risks created by the fed’s aggressive interest rate hike trajectory (to battle inflation) which could drive us into recession and decisively warrant discounted valuation multiples being assigned to these businesses still on track to achieve significantly higher future earnings. In this report, we highlight 25 examples, including a special focus on Micron (MU).
Income Equity Portfolio: MANY New Buys!
I don’t trade often (because I believe in long-term investing), but recent market dislocation has created some very attractive buying opportunities. Year-to-date, the Blue Harbinger Income Equity Portfolio has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 (this has been due to its large overweight to very high-income securities, in particular). However, going forward, the strategy is focused more heavily on steady dividend/income growth—through compelling blue-chip capital appreciation opportunities. This report has all the details.