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The 25-position Blue Harbinger “High Income Portfolio” continues to offer a high yield (currently 9.6%). There have been no new buys or complete sales, but the existing portfolio positions have been rebalanced to trim some winners (trading at higher prices) and add more to attractive opportunities trading a bit lower (attractive). You can access the updated holdings in this report.
There are lots of ways to earn big yield in this market, and the BDC space (business development companies) is ripe with opportunities. And while BDCs come in a wide variety of shapes and sizes (data is shared in this report), one that stands out is Trinity Capital (TRIN) because of its growth-sector niche (arguably better aligned with the “new” US economy), internal management team (less conflicts of interest) and outstanding 14% dividend yield. This report reviews all of that, plus the big risks Trintiy currently faces, and then concludes with my strong opinion on investing.
In yet another whipsaw move for the market, investors "bought the dip" driving the BH Sentiment Index from only 20 ("Fear") to now 55 in just one week. It's been a wild and unusual ride over the last 4 weeks as the market "Fear Index" (The VIX) spiked and is now falling, credit spreads widened a bit (and are now shrinking) and growth stocks have come roaring back after the market sold off following Nvidia earnings (which were very good) and now news that Google TCU chips are finding massive inroads with AI.
"Market Fear" is currently strong, as the BH Market Sentiment Index has fallen from 83 ("extreme greed") just 3 weeks ago to now 20 (teetering on "extreme fear"). The reason is multifaceted, but the market has posted significant gains in recent months (since "Liberation Day") and investors are increasingly concerned about an "AI Bubble," as well as an increasingly hawkish fed (creeping inflation fears) and unsettled trade agreements with South Korea (we import a lot of steel, semiconductors and cars (Kia, Genesis, Hyundai)).
Market "Greed" is tumbling, with the BH Sentiment Index falling from 83 two weeks ago, to 50 last week, and now only 38 (Fear). This is an increasingly attractive time to buy quality stocks that have sold off (be contrarian), however speculative growth stocks (e.g. the "AI/Growth Bubble") is at risk of falling further…
Market "Greed" is tumbling, with the BH Index falling from 83 a week ago ("Extreme Greed") to now only 50, placing sentiment firmly in the "Neutral" range as market participants try to make sense of tariff court cases, the ongoing government shutdown, and constant cries of a growth/AI stock bubble.
BH Fear & Greed Index: Markets regained momentum, confidence and "greed" over the last week as stocks remained near flat but regained their footing as money flowed in (MFI over 50 again for SPY), the VIX (market fear index) calmed down, credit spreads came down/ remain low, and treasury yields remained mostly neutral. Nvidia…
BH Fear & Greed Index: The market remains a bit jittery with the VIX slightly elevated and gold prices hitting record highs (gold feels a bit like a "meme stock" at this point). Sharing the updated BH Market Sentiment Index. From a high level, this market remains neutral to slightly greedy.
Sharing data on the latest holding in the extremely popular Dan Ives AI Revolution ETF (IVES). Considering the extraordinary popularity of AI combined with the non-stop public appearances of Ives (he is everywhere!) these stocks will continue to receive a lot of attention, especially from retail investors, and some of them rightfully so. Enjoy!
This post will fall on deaf ears, because, quite frankly, it is too sophisticated for most non-professional investors to understand. But it needs to be said. Long-term stock market investing is driven by the market more than your stock picks, and when you don’t know which stocks to buy (with some of your money), do NOT sit in cash, instead sit in a low-cost S&P 500 ETF. Your future bank account will thank you. Here is why…
Quick Note: Cash Savings → High Income and Safety. Maybe it’s your emergency fund. Maybe it’s your savings for near-term expenses. The stock market is WAY too risky in the short-term, so where can you safely park your cash that also earns a decent yield? This report reviews two compelling options (Vanguard bond ETFs) for you to consider. I use them both regularly.
QUICK NOTE: Microsoft earnings are basically a “home run” for the AI megatrend, and they say a lot about the company. In particular...
If you think this week’s relief rally (after Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs) is the end of the trade war—it’s not. And it’s not the end of stock market pain either.
Regarding the trade war, here is another look at the US trade deficit with China. The US is importing a lot more from China than it is exporting to them.
This is a quick note to let readers know I have just sold 100% of my shares in this high-flying big-data software AI company. It has been an incredible ride (the shares are up several hundred percent since purchasing, but the valuation has just gotten to high, and it appears a new sell-off may intensify.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is hot. And in this quick note, I share data on 3 of the absolute hottest AI stocks right now (Ytd: +52.3%, +28.8%, +38.6%). Each one is very different than the others.
If you are a growth investor, cloud data AI company, Snowflake (SNOW) has massive revenue and massive revenue growth. However, the share price has fallen from extreme highs (in 2021) so that its recent 33%+ pop in share price (following strong quarterly earnings) still leaves a lot to be desired. In this brief note, we review the company’s incredible revenue growth, earnings (still very negative net income), valuation and share dilution. We conclude with our strong opinion on investing.
Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) recent sell-off (shares down 50% since August) provides a tempting buying opportunity for long-term growth investors. But there are a few things investors need to consider. For starters, investors were disappointed with Q3 results, in large part because the company reported a $13.0 million net loss, which included a $27.5 million one-time charge from the redemption of the company's convertible note (without the one-time charge, net income was $14.5 million, a $27.4 million YoY improvement). Additionally…
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